金砖国家新开发银行环境和社会安全保障政策的创新性分析

为改善借款方的长期整体发展效果,金砖国家新开发银行对其环境和社会安全保障政策框架进行了大胆创新,着力推进借款方"本国体系"的使用和建设。传统多边开发银行的环境和社会安全保障政策往往采取施加于所有借款方国家法律之上"一刀切"的方式,但难以取得理想的发展效果,其主要原因有:无法影响非多边开发银行资助项目;条件过于僵化,导致部分借款方转而求助于其他融资选项;给借款方造成沉重的时间和费用负担。"本国体系"有效克服了上述难题,但也存在相应挑战。为应对挑战,未来金砖国家新开发银行推进借款国"本国体系"的努力方向是:为本国体系预设一个最低标准;逐步有序而非一步到位地推进本国体系;切实加大对借款方的技术援助。     

我国农村产业融合发展的效率评价

[目的]为了进一步提升农村产业融合发展效率,提升农业质量效益和竞争力、增强农村发展活力、促进农民持续增收,[方法]文章根据我国农村产业融合发展的投入产出指标数据,利用DEA方法对我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)农村产业融合效率进行了科学的分析与测算,[结果]研究表明,我国农村产业融发展的总体效率偏低。从综合效率看,仅有天津等7个省(自治区、直辖市)的综合效率值高于0. 5;从纯技术效率看,仅有江苏等8个省(自治区、直辖市)的纯技术效率高于0. 5;从规模效率看,西藏、甘肃、青海3个省(自治区)的规模效率低于0. 5。提升农村产业融合发展效率仍有较大的空间。[结论]应从进一步加大对农村产业融合发展的资金投入力度、着力优化农村产业融合发展的资金投入结构、建立农村产业融合发展效率考评制度等方面提升农村产业融合发展效率,促进农村产业融合快速发展。     

Can Industrial Restructuring Significantly Reduce Energy Consumption? Evidence from China

This article uses China’s input–output (I-O) tables in 2002, 2007, and 2012 to estimate the real energy consumption of each sector after the I-O adjustment. The relationship between the sectors is further analyzed using the utility analysis method based on ecological network analysis. The empirical results show that although the traditional energy-intensive industries are the major energy-consuming sectors from a direct energy consumption perspective, large energy consumption by energy-intensive industries is transferred to downstream industries through intermediate products after the I-O adjustment. Specifically, the building industry and service sector are the sectors with the highest real energy consumption. With the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure, the proportion of energy-intensive sectors in China is declining. However, the development of the service sector and infrastructure construction still requires large intermediate inputs. Thus, industrial restructuring cannot significantly reduce China’s total energy consumption.     

Excess corporate payouts and financial distress risk

Firms that follow excessive payout policies (over-payers) are higher on the financial distress spectrum and have lower survival rates than under-payers. In addition, over-payers endure lower future sales and asset growth than under-payers and experience negative abnormal returns in the bond and stock markets. Exogenous import tariff reductions and commodity price jumps reduce the likelihood of overpayment. We interpret this as evidence consistent with financial flexibility considerations, rather than risk-shifting, explaining the decision to overpay. We also find that CEO overconfidence and catering incentives affect overpayment.     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

产业互联下基于双循环的供应链合作稳定性研究

以一条由制造商和零售商组成的二级供应链为研究对象,通过测算产业互联度与双循环程度,研究对供应链合作稳定性的影响.研究发现:在国内环境中,产业互联度与内循环程度呈正比关系,产业互联度越高,内循环程度越高;内循环度程度提高,内需扩大,供应链上的企业选择合作时的整体收益要大于不合作时的收益,因此达到供应链长期稳定合作.通过从国内角度寻找出的规律应用于国际供应链中,为企业参与全球经济提供启示.     

Banks' environmental policy and business outcomes: The role of competition

By integrating the two areas of competition–performance and environment–performance, this research explores if competition matters in the relationship between environmental practices and interest margins in the market. A panel of 458 banks from 74 countries for the period of 2006–2016 is used, and the sample is further divided into developed and developing countries. This paper uses the system Generalized Method of Moments estimator to tackle potential omitted variable bias, endogeneity, and simultaneity issues. Without competition, environmental practices only affect banks in developing countries; however, the results show a significant impact for the full sample, including developed countries, when the competition is taken into consideration, suggesting that competition might play a role in the relationship of environmental practices and interest margins. In the full sample, competition impacts the relationship negatively after a moderate level of competition is reached in the market. The environmental practices in developing countries are prone to competition in the market. In developed countries, the competition is found to be lightly positively moderating the impact of environmental practices on interest margins. Based on these findings, it is recommended that developing countries should have a low or moderate level of competition to encourage environmental practices. For developed countries, however, high competition should be preferred to encourage banks to consider environmental practices as one of their core business strategies. These findings are found robust to different statistical estimators.     

新发展格局视野中的消费券发放问题与重构研究

2020年面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击,各地纷纷发放消费券刺激消费。本轮发放消费券的省市和规模远超以往。考察当前各地消费券的实践,其存在三方面的问题:短期刺激消费与构建发展新格局缺乏衔接、地方各自为政与顶层设计阙如、财政补贴与财政约束的张力。针对这些问题,本文从新发展格局视野提出将当前消费券重构为财政和金融融合的消费金融券,使之成为构建新发展格局中扩大内需的长期政策和重要的宏观调控工具。消费金融券的制度设计要与社会结构新特征和新趋势相契合。针对低收入群体的消费金融券,应以财政补贴为主、以重大生活项目消费的利息补贴与信用担保为辅。针对中等收入群体的消费金融券,应以利息补贴为主,通过消费金融的方式扩大消费。加大消费金融券的全国顶层设计,明确中央和地方财政支持产业的范围和力度。     

资源依赖型地区产业转型的战略及对策研究

资源依赖型地区产业转型是保障国家资源安全和促进经济社会可持续发展的关键。我国资源依赖型地区数量多且分布广,现阶段此类地区开发阶段不同,所以进行产业转型的路径存在差异,其过程任重而道远。针对我国资源依赖型地区产业发展的现状进行分析并找出其问题,基于此,科学全面的探讨适合此类地区实现产业转型的五个战略,并进一步分别从地区资源开发阶段和地区利益相关主体两个维度,制定出符合资源依赖型地区产业转型的对策。     

In Data We Trust? An Analysis of Indonesian Socioeconomic Survey Data

What if a popular dataset that has generated a large amount of literature has been misunderstood and has led to misleading inferences? This paper examines household expenditure data from the Indonesian National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas), which started more than 50 years ago. Appropriate use of Susenas data for policy analysis requires an understanding that the survey’s expenditure variable does not measure true out-of-pocket expenses, because it includes subsidies received by households when obtaining goods and services. We also highlight an abrupt change in the survey instrument that occurred in 2015, when the reference period for certain items was extended. For health items, this generated a change in the expenditure series that can be misinterpreted as being the result of a social health insurance reform introduced in 2014 to lower the health care burden on households. Accordingly, we propose a way to account for this artificial expenditure movement in Susenas.